While dictatorship may seem distant from everyday life in Denmark, it remains a reality for billions of people across the globe. More than four billion people – living in over 40% of the world’s countries – are currently ruled by authoritarian regimes. And globally, these regimes are proving increasingly resilient and entrenched.

Jakob Tolstrup’s new project on crisis dynamics in autocracies is therefore highly relevant. It not only seeks to deepen our understanding of how such regimes operate, but also aims to produce knowledge that may assist Western policymakers and pro-democracy actors within autocracies in exploiting moments of crisis to push for regime change – and potentially democratic transition.

“There is a real lack of systematic research into how crises unfold in dictatorships. We know that crises such as mass protests, fraudulent elections or hyperinflation are turbulent and potentially destabilising events. But we still know too little about the internal dynamics of these crises – how they develop, what drives them, and ultimately, what determines the fate of the regime,” says Jakob Tolstrup.

With the new funding from Independent Research Fund Denmark, Jakob Tolstrup will investigate how dictators respond to crises: What determines whether a dictatorship survives a moment of upheaval?

The project’s central hypothesis is that what the dictator communicates – and how – plays a pivotal role in shaping the course of events. By analysing data such as speeches and public statements, press photos, video footage, and records of whom the dictator meets with, where and when, the project will develop a more comprehensive picture of autocratic crisis behaviour.

This crisis communication will be compared with the dictator’s communication during ‘normal times’, as well as with behavioural data on elites and the broader population during crises.

“The hope is that we will learn how regimes’ propaganda strategies and autocrats’ methods of control shift during various crises – and how this ultimately affects how the crises unfold and are resolved,” says Jakob Tolstrup.

Further info

• Project title: Controlling Crisis or Losing Control? The Logic and Consequences of Autocrats’ Crisis Behavior
• Amount franted: DKK 6.2 million
• More about Jakob Tolstrup and his research
• Read more from Independent Research Fund Denmark about the grant recipients: