Embattled Dictators

Embattled Dictators: External Influences on Political Crises in Authoritarian Regimes

The project examines how external actors (nation states and international organisations) influence the ability of dictators to maintain power in times of political crisis. So far, the literature on dictatorships has focused its attention primarily on the effects of internal institutional or structural variables (eg type of dictatorship or resource dependency) on dictator's chances of survival. This project, on the other hand, adopts a more outward approach, trying to elucidate the external dimension of authoritarian stability.

The main contention is that the ability of dictators to maintain power is put to test during political crises. Such crises may arise from three possible sources: the dictator's political supporters may turn him down, the people may rise in rebellion against him or an external actor may force him from power through military intervention. The external dimension, of course, plays a decisive part in the last-mentioned type of crisis, but also in the two first-mentioned cases external actors may be a crucial factor, either by backing the opposition and weakening the dictator or, on the contrary, by helping repel the challengers.

In order to investigate this, the project will develop a database of all political crisis situations experienced by dictators worldwide in the post-Cold War period, and describe the role played by external actors in these crises situations. In this way the project will help us understand why some dictators succeed in remaining in power while others are deposed, thereby providing a greater insight into the factors that contribute to provoke political revolutions and regime changes all over the world.

Project manager: Jakob Tolstrup